Mozambique Channel: Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy tracking northwest in the Mozambique Channel, early March 8 /update 3

Event

Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy is tracking northwest in the Mozambique Channel, just west of the northwestern coast of the Atsimo-Andrefana Region in Madagascar, early March 8. The storm's center of circulation is approximately 83 km (52 miles) east of Europa Island. Freddy is forecast to weaken into a Tropical Cyclone by early March 9 as it continues to track northwestward towards Zambezia Province in Mozambique before making landfall over the southeastern part of the province early March 11. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early March 8, Madagascar's General Directorate of Meteorology has issued red cyclone warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Betioky, Morombe, and Toliara I and II districts in Atsimo-Andrefana Region. Yellow cyclone warnings are in place for Ampanihy, Ankazoabo, Benenitra, and Sakaraha districts in Atsimo-Andrefana Region. Green cyclone alerts are in effect for Menabe Region and Beroroha District in Atsimo-Andrefana Region. Authorities have advised residents in low-lying areas and in Fierenana Commune near the embankment to shelter in a safe place and follow instructions from authorities.

Mozambique's National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has not issued any warnings regarding Freddy as of early March 8; however, the institute is likely to as the storm approaches. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Freddy has impacted the region in recent weeks. In February, Freddy-related flooding and rainfall affected approximately 232,000 people in Mozambique. Authorities confirmed 10 fatalities, and damage to infrastructure, including homes, roads, and schools. The Gaza, Inhambane, Manica, and Sofala provinces were worst affected. In Madagascar, Freddy impacted approximately 226,000 people, primarily in the Vatovavy Region. Authorities confirmed seven deaths across the country. The storm has mostly impacted agricultural production.

Since Freddy reentered the Mozambique Channel, authorities in Madagascar have confirmed eight additional fatalities as of March 7. The storm has affected over 40,000 people, with more than 6,700 people sheltering in 26 evacuation centers across Toliara I and Toliara II districts and more than 11,000 others displaced. Several roads are blocked, including portions of RNT 15, RNT 17A, and RNT 35.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger further flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions; it could also render some bridges and roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC)
Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM)