Syria: Final assault on Raqqa imminent

Event

A final assault on Raqqa, one of the last bastions held by the Islamic State (IS) in Syria, is expected to begin imminently as of Monday, October 9. The initial offensive on Raqqa, led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with air support from the US-led international coalition, was originally launched in early June. Raqqa was previously IS’s de facto capital in Syria but the group currently only controls parts of the city center, e.g. areas that include the sports stadium and hospital. Hundreds of IS militants remain in Raqqa although approximately 80 percent of the city has been reclaimed by Syrian forces. This final assault is expected to take around a week.

A simultaneous operation to expel IS from the eastern province of Deir Al-Zour is also ongoing, with support from Russian airstrikes. Additionally, Turkish troops have moved into Idlib province (northwest) to enforce a “de-escalation zone” in the region near the Turkish border, which has experienced increasingly frequent airstrikes resulting in civilian casualties.

Context

Syria is enmeshed in a complex civil war that started between the Assad government and opposition forces in March 2011. Today, the conflict in Syria involves many parties, including the Syrian government, the Russian government, the Iranian government, the Turkish government, a US-led coalition, and numerous armed groups on the ground (including IS) with competing goals.

In neighboring Iraq, government forces have achieved recent victories against IS including the liberation of Mosul in July, Tal Afar in August, and Hawija in October. As IS's capabilities to successfully wage insurgent warfare in Iraq and Syria wane, it is likely that the group will continue to employ such asymmetric terror tactics with greater frequency, using small cells that can operate within the group's progressively fragmenting leadership structure.

Advice

Due to extremely poor security conditions, Western governments generally advise against all travel to Syria, with some banning travel to the country. Professional security advice and support should be sought prior to any travel to Syria.