Venezuela: Risk of default November 12

Event

If Venezuela fails to pay a USD 81 million bond payment due on Sunday, November 12, the country will default on its foreign debt. In the short-term, a default would likely exacerbate existing shortages of essential goods, and in the medium- to long-term increase poverty rates and reduce public and private investment in the economy. These potential consequences increase the risk of widespread social unrest and political violence.

Context

Venezuela was shaken by four months of violent anti-government protests earlier in the year, fueled by ongoing political, economic, social, and health crises. While the rate and intensity of protests has fallen significantly in recent months, the underlying problems remain and the potential for further large-scale protests and associated violence cannot be overstated. Over 160 people were killed in protests since April, with the majority of fatalities attributed to excessive force on the part of security authorities.

Advice

Individuals in Venezuela are advised to closely monitor the sociopolitical situation and to systematically avoid all protests due to the risk of violence. Maintain a stockpile of enough food, water, and other supplies enabling you to shelter in place for several days in the event of a sudden deterioration of the local security situation.