Mexico: Tropical depression forecast to strengthen into tropical storm and bring heavy rainfall to the Yucatan Peninsula from October 3

Event

Tropical Depression Twenty-Five in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to strengthen into a tropical storm on Friday night, October 2, before tracking towards the Yucatan Peninsula, where it will bring heavy rainfall and possible flooding. As of 16:00 (local time) on Friday, the storm was located 250 km (155 mi) southeast of Cozumel (Quintana Roo state), traveling northwest at a speed of 15 kph (9 mph) and carrying maximum sustained winds of up to 55 kph (35 mph). Upon strengthening to a tropical storm, the system will be named Gamma and it is forecast to make landfall near Cozumel at around midday on Saturday, September 3. Quintana Roo and Yucatan states are expected to bear the brunt of the storm system, with parts of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas also being affected by rainfall well away from the storm's center.

The NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Warning between Punta Herrero (Quintana Roo state) to Cabo Catoche (Quintana Roo state) and a tropical Storm watch has been issued south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya (Quintana Roo state) and west of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam (Yucatan state).

Rainfall of between 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 in) is expected in affected areas, with some parts receiving as much as 500 mm (20 in). The strong winds and heavy rainfall could cause flooding, landslides, and associated disruptions to transport, utilities, and businesses in the coming days.

Context

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from late May through to the end of November, with activity typically peaking in late August and early September. Numerous tropical storms form in the Atlantic Ocean during this period, with most affecting the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the east coast of the United States. Although communities in the region are generally well prepared for adverse weather conditions during the hurricane season, severe storms bring a significant risk of flooding and infrastructural damage.

Advice

Individuals in areas forecast to be affected by the storm system are advised to monitor local weather reports, confirm flight reservations, adhere to instructions issued by local authorities, anticipate adverse weather and power and transportation disruptions, and remember that running water can be dangerous. Never drive through flooded streets; floodwater may also contain wastewater and chemical products.