Armenia: Opposition protesters to gather in Yerevan November 11 /update 1

Event

Opposition supporters plan to gather at Freedom Square in Yerevan on Wednesday afternoon, November 11, for a large demonstration to demand Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's resignation. The planned protest and calls for his ousting comes following the signing of a Russian-brokered peace deal to end the country's conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region on Monday, November 9. The signing of the deal sparked demonstrations in the capital; protesters on Tuesday, November 10, broke into the National Assembly and other government buildings.

Wednesday's demonstration will likely be well-attended and therefore a heightened security presence should also be anticipated. Clashes between security forces and demonstrators cannot be ruled out. Localized disruptions to businesses and overland travel are also possible, and further associated demonstrations are possible across Armenia in the coming days.

Context

On Monday, November 9, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a Russian-brokered peace deal which effectively ends the decades-old conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In the terms of the agreement, Armenia has been forced to concede control of certain areas to Azerbaijan. The news of the deal sparked demonstrations in the capital on Tuesday, November 10. Demonstrators are calling for Pashinyan's resignation, and reports suggest that 17 political opposition parties, including Prosperous Armenia, the Republican Party, and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), issued a joint statement on November 9 calling for Pashinyan's resignation also. Any gatherings will likely be well-attended and security forces will likely intervene to disperse protesters.

Over 1000 people, including civilians, have been killed since the renewed outbreak of hostilities. In addition to fighting along the Line of Contact, cities in Nagorno-Karabakh and outside of the conflict zone have been targeted in artillery strikes including Stepanakert, Ganja, Barda, Beylagan, Terter, and Mingecevir.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the fighting have been ongoing, but previous ceasefire agreements have been shortlived and both sides have accused each other of violating the agreements. On Saturday, October 17, Azeri authorities stated that at least 12 people had been killed and 40 others wounded in rocket strikes which targeted the city of Ganja despite an agreed cessation of hostilities. 

Armenia and neighboring Azerbaijan have a long-standing dispute over the possession of Nagorno-Karabakh, home to some 150,000 inhabitants (mostly ethnic Armenians) and located in the west of Azerbaijan. This issue has fuelled tensions between the two countries since 1988; with some 30,000 people being killed in fighting from 1990 to 1994. The two countries declared another ceasefire in April 2016 after the region experienced four days of violent clashes that left hundreds dead. Tensions between the two countries remain high and each side frequently accuses the other of violating the ceasefire agreement.

Advice

Those in Yerevan are advised to monitor the situation, avoid any demonstrations and large gatherings as a precaution, and adhere to any instructions issued by local authorities.