Armenia: Protests demanding prime minister's ouster likely to intensify following Dec. 8 expiration of opposition ultimatum /update 1

Event

Anti-government protests could begin to intensify in Armenia as early as Dec. 8 when a recently issued opposition ultimatum demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is set to expire. During a major demonstration in central Yerevan on Dec. 5, opposition leaders gave Pashinyan and his cabinet until 1200 Dec. 8 to leave office of their own accord, threatening to force the administration out by escalating the ongoing campaign of protests and civil disobedience and expanding it nationwide if the prime minister fails to comply. Despite their strong words, protest leaders have pledged not to resort to physical violence.

Since it remains unlikely Pashinyan and his government will step down willingly, the demonstrations, which have thus far largely been limited to central Yerevan, will probably expand to other major cities after the ultimatum deadline passes. While the largest protests will likely continue to take place in prominent squares and near government buildings in the Armenian capital, rallies and other gatherings could also occur in other locations nationwide such as Gyumri, Vanadzor, and Vagharshapat. A ban on public assembly, which had entered into force when the country declared martial law during its Sept. 27-Nov. 10 conflict with Azerbaijan, was lifted in early December.

Armenian authorities will probably maintain a high security posture over the coming days in order to mitigate the potential for further unrest; security forces will almost certainly respond quickly to any disruptive demonstrations that may occur. Clashes are possible between demonstrators and security personnel, as well as among opposing activists.

Context

Protests have been occurring in Yerevan since Nov. 10 in reaction to Pashinyan's signing of an agreement ending the country's conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The prime minister's move came after Armenian and Karabakhi forces suffered a series of major setbacks in the latest spate of hostilities in the region. The Nov. 8 capture of the city of Shusha by Azerbaijani forces dealt the most severe blow to Armenia's war effort both militarily and from a morale standpoint.

News of the deal, which the Armenian public essentially views as an act of surrender to Azerbaijan, immediately sparked large demonstrations by angry citizens in the nation's capital where protesters broke into the National Assembly and Government buildings before marching on the presidential residence. Seventeen political opposition parties, including Prosperous Armenia, the Republican Party, and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), are seeking to push Pashinyan out of office. Opposition legislators have already nominated former Prime Minister Vazgen Manukyan to lead a transitional government until early parliamentary elections can be held.

Advice

Exercise caution if operating in Armenia, and especially Yerevan, until the extent of any escalation in civil unrest becomes clear. Avoid any protests that may materialize; keep away from areas where security forces appear to be deploying. Heed the instructions of local authorities. If violence erupts nearby, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure non-governmental building. Allow extra time to reach destinations in major cities.