Iraq: Additional security forces deployed in Baghdad following arrest of several members of Shi'a group Dec. 25

Event

The Iraqi government has deployed additional security forces to key infrastructure sites and around government buildings in Baghdad following the arrest of six members of the Shi'a militia group Asai'b Ahl al-Haq (AAH) Dec. 25. Authorities have also reportedly raised the threat level in the nation's capital to the highest alert level.

Iraq's National Intelligence Service and Counter-Terrorism Service arrested the six militiamen on charges of launching rocket attacks against the US Embassy in Baghdad. The AAH has demanded the release of its members and threatened action against the government; nevertheless, authorities assert the detainees will remain in custody until a full investigation has been conducted. The arrests occurred on the same day as the leak of a Ministry of Interior document which allegedly revealed plans by Shi'a militia groups to target US personnel in Iraq on the first anniversary of the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.

Iraqi security forces will likely maintain a heightened security posture in Baghdad through at least early January. Clashes between security forces and AAH fighters cannot be ruled out. Increased security will likely prompt localized transport and business disruptions in impact areas throughout Baghdad.

Context

Rocket and improvised explosive device (IED) attacks against Iraqi bases hosting coalition forces and logistics convoys have become increasingly frequent since Soleimani was killed by US forces outside Baghdad International Airport (BGQ) Jan. 3. This type of violence will probably persist; however, it is unlikely that either the US or Iran and its allies will increase tensions to the point of a major escalation. Tehran will continue to avoid moves that could potentially provoke a direct military backlash from Washington. The US typically responds with missile and drone strikes against Iranian-backed Shi’a militias in Iraq and Syria when there are casualties involved in rocket attacks, while generally ignoring rocket attacks that pose no threat to its forces in Iraq.

Advice

Avoid concentrations of security forces. Exercise caution when operating throughout Baghdad. Heed the advice of authorities, including officers at security checkpoints. Avoid loitering near security checkpoints and main entrances to hotels, restaurants, or government buildings. Seek updated information on security conditions and possible movement restrictions in Iraq before traveling. Do not attempt to bypass security checkpoints; even an accidental breach of the security cordon near a checkpoint may prompt Iraqi security forces to respond aggressively.