Iraq: US Embassy in Baghdad to withdraw some diplomats ahead of Jan. 3 anniversary of Iranian Major General Gasem Soleimani's killing

Event

The US Department of State plans to implement a precautionary reduction in staffing at the nation's embassy in Baghdad ahead of the upcoming anniversary of the killing of Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani; Soleimani was killed in the Iraqi capital in a targeted US drone strike on Jan. 3. The decision comes amid ongoing threats against US personnel and troops in Iraq. Tensions have also been heightened following the targeted killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizada in Tehran on Nov. 27. According to US officials, the drawdown will be temporary, with the embassy remaining open and operational. It is unclear, however, how long the reduction will last and what percentage of the embassy's personnel will be withdrawn. Decreased availability of certain embassy services is likely for the duration of the measure.

No other governments have taken similar steps with regard to their diplomatic missions in Iraq. However, some close US ally nations could bolster security at their own facilities in Baghdad over the coming days.

Context

The US government very likely ordered the temporary drawdown out of an abundance of caution rather than in response to any specific intelligence concerning actual plans for an attack around the anniversary of Soleimani's death. Soleimani was the commander of the Quds Force, which is the external wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and focuses on special and clandestine operations outside Iran. He was the main architect of Iran's military adventures and played a pivotal role in the country's activities in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Soleimani was also Iran's most formidable military leader.

Rocket and improvised explosive device (IED) attacks against Iraqi bases hosting coalition forces and logistics convoys have become increasingly frequent since Soleimani was killed. This type of violence will probably persist; however, it is unlikely that either the US or Iran and its allies will increase tensions to the point of a major escalation. Tehran will continue to avoid moves that could potentially provoke a direct military backlash from Washington. The US typically responds with missile and drone strikes against Iranian-backed Shi’a militias in Iraq and Syria when there are casualties involved in rocket attacks, while generally ignoring rocket attacks that pose no threat to its forces in Iraq.

Advice

Plan accordingly for delays or reductions in the availability of diplomatic services at the US embassy in Baghdad through at least Jan. 3. Reconfirm business appointments at the embassy. If incoming artillery fire is reported in the general vicinity, stay indoors, away from windows and exterior walls, and, if possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Check flight status before departing for the airport if traveling via Baghdad International Airport (BGW). Do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed.

Resources

US Embassy in Iraq: iq.usembassy.gov