03 Mar 2021 | 04:39 PM UTC
Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Niran continues tracking southeastward in the Coral Sea off the coast of Queensland, Australia, as of late March 3 /update 3
TC Niran tracking southeastward in the Coral Sea off Queensland, Australia, as of late March 3. Disruptions possible.
Event
Category-2 Tropical Cyclone Niran continues to strengthen as it tracks southeastward in the Coral Sea off the northeastern coast of Queensland, Australia, late March 3. As of 2200 AEST, the center of circulation was approximately 356 km (221 miles) northeast of Cairns. Forecast models indicate the slow-moving system will intensify further as it tracks southeastward, potentially reaching Category-4 Severe Tropical Cyclone strength by late March 4. The storm is forecast to approach New Caledonia by late March 5, transiting off that country's southern coast before entering the South Pacific Ocean and passing to the north of New Zealand's North Island by March 7 as it transitions to a post-tropical cyclone. As of yet, Tropical Cyclone Niran is not forecast to make landfall. However, uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.
Government Advisories
As of 2246 AEST March 3, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued the following warnings, watches, and advisories in response to the storm:
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Cape Flattery to Innisfail
Officials will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations could occur if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.
Hazardous Conditions
Severe Tropical Cyclone Niran will continue bringing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas of Queensland in the coming days. Sustained heavy rain could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, and rivers, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Elevated water levels are likely in catchment areas; the BOM has issued a flood watch for several river catchments between Cooktown and Rollingstone. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days.
Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding, particularly as the system moves closer to land. Abnormally high tides are likely and could exacerbate storm surge throughout coastal Queensland. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for surge to recede and water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.
In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, Severe Tropical Cyclone Niran will produce damaging wind gusts as it tracks along the Queensland coastline. Widespread and prolonged power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines are possible.
Transport
Inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through at least March 7. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports. Sea conditions and high winds could also disrupt handling and other operations at ports along the Queensland coastline. Disruptions caused by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions improve. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.
Plan accordingly for commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas closest to the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or going to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
