Djibouti: Heightened security likely nationwide through April 9 presidential elections

Event

Authorities in Djibouti will likely maintain an increased security posture nationwide through the country's April 9 presidential elections. Incumbent President Ismail Omar Guelleh will be seeking a fifth term in office in his race against businessman Zakaria Ismael Farah of the Movement for the Development and Balance of the Djiboutian Nation (MDEND). Guelleh and his ruling Union for a Presidential Majority (UMP) have been in power since Djibouti's first multiparty elections in 1999. All other major opposition parties, including the Union for National Salvation (USN) and the Rally for Action, Democracy, and Ecological Development (RADDE), are boycotting the 2021 election, citing alleged bias by the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI).

While protests, including incidents of violence, have occurred during some elections in previous years, the opposition is largely marginalized and fragmented, with its ability to operate and organize being severely constrained. Nevertheless, security forces will almost certainly deploy to monitor all demonstrations or rallies that may occur during the election season. Localized traffic disruptions are likely near rally locations. Authorities could move quickly to disperse any gatherings they deem to be overly disruptive - particularly those organized by opposition parties. Tensions and associated protests could persist after the election, if any accusations of irregularities emerge.

Advice

If operating in Djibouti, exercise increased personal vigilance for the duration of the election period. Avoid all demonstrations and associated gatherings due to the possibility of violence. Keep away from areas where security personnel appear to be deploying. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe non-governmental building. Monitor trusted local news sources for developments. Heed all instructions from security personnel and allow extra time to reach destinations near rally locations.