Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan: Tensions remain high between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as of April 30, following border clashes in Batken and Sughd provinces, respectively /update 1

Event

Tensions will likely remain high between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan through early May following armed clashes between the two nations' respective security forces April 28-30. Sporadic exchanges of gunfire were reported overnight April 29-30 in shared border regions of Batken Province in Kyrgyzstan and Sughd Region in Tajikistan. Kyrgyz officials state that the military is now in control of restive border areas and clashes have abated; however, additional armed clashes remain possible between security forces and residents in shared border regions. Although casualty figures are unclear as reports continue to emerge, up to 13 Kyrgyz citizens have been killed and dozens injured, while unconfirmed reports state seven Tajik citizens have been wounded. Kyrgyz authorities have also evacuated several border villages including Ak-Say, while Tajik authorities have reportedly relocated women and children from the villages of Khoja A'lo and Somoniyon.

Authorities in Batken Province previously announced a local state of emergency in the rural districts of Ak-Say, Ak-Tatyr, and Samarkandek as of April 29. Security forces have set up checkpoints, including on the road between Isfara and Vorukh. Localized disruptions are likely.

Violence reportedly broke out overnight April 28-29 around the Golovnoy water station. Kyrgyz security forces allege that Tajik residents crossed the border, threw stones at cars on the Osh-Isfana road, and opened fire on a Kyrgyz military unit near Kok-Tash. Unconfirmed reports suggest that violence also erupted in the nearby village of Khoja A'lo. Checkpoints have likely been erected on several roads that were previously closed in the area, including the Osh-Batken-Isfana road near Jaka-Oruk and the route connecting Aksai with the Kyrgyz exclave of Vorukh.

Security-related disruptions are likely in the area in the coming days. Any further violence will pose an incidental physical threat to bystanders.

Context

Confrontations between residents in border areas of the Ferghana Valley, where Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan intersect, are relatively common. The borders are often poorly demarcated, with several exclaves of differing ethnicities increasing the potential for unrest. The latest clashes are likely to abate in the coming days and a wider escalation of the dispute is unlikely.

Advice

Avoid travel to the affected areas until the situation has calmed. Exercise caution in Kyrgyz-Tajik border areas of Batken Province in the coming days. Allow additional time for travel; carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation.