Tanzania: Tropical Depression Jobo forecast to increasingly impact coastal areas through April 25 /update 3

Event

Tropical Depression Jobo continues to weaken on approach to the Tanzanian coast April 24. As of 09:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 150 km (93 miles) southeast of Dar Es Salaam. Landfall is forecast in the Pwani Region late April 24. Following landfall, the system will rapidly weaken as it tracks across east-central Tanzania. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

Government Warnings
Tanzanian authorities issued an advisory for heavy rain, large waves, and strong winds April 23 for Dar es Salaam, Lindi, Mafia Island, Morogoro, Mtwara, Pemba, Pwani, Tanga, Unguja, and Zanzibar. Warnings may be updated in the coming hours.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm may bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas of Tanzania. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system approaches land. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

In addition to the heavy rainfall, flooding, and storm surge, Jobo will produce damaging wind gusts as it approaches Tanzania. Widespread and prolonged power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines are possible.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these diseases is usually elevated in the low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to the presence of incomplete or open sewer lines. A latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewerage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tanzanian Meteorological Authority