Afghanistan: Adverse weather forecast across northern regions through at least May 6 /update 1

Event

Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flooding are forecast to persist across northern Afghanistan through at least May 6. The Afghan Meteorological Department has issued heavy rainfall and thunderstorm warnings for Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Baghlan, Samangan, Kunar, Nuristan, Panjshir, Kapisa, Parwan, Kabul, Maidan Wardak, Ghazni, Bamian, Daykundi, Ghor, Faryab, Jawzjan, Sar-e pul, and Balkh provinces. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days. Additionally, Farah, Herat, Badghis, Logar, Pakya, Paktika, and Khost provinces may experience further disruptions due to ongoing flooding.

As of May 5, at least 37 people have died and at least 10 people are missing as a result of the flooding in northern Afghanistan, mostly in Herat and Ghor province. Additionally, at least 900 people have been displaced as a result of the flooding.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.