Philippines: Tropical Depression 03W tracks westward into the Sulu Sea as of late May 14 /update 3

Event

Tropical Depression 03W (known in the Philippines as Crising) is tracking westward in the Sulu Sea off the coast of the south-central Philippines, late May 14. As of 20:00 PHST May 14, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 457 km (284 miles) east-southeast of Puerto Princesa. Forecast models indicate the system will continue to weaken as it tracks westwards towards Palawan Province across the Sulu Sea. Landfall in central Palawan Province, south of Puerto Princesa, is forecast as a tropical depression, May 15. Following landfall, the system will continue to weaken and dissipate as it tracks into the South China Sea. The storm's track and intensity forecast remain somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of May 14, Philippine officials continue to warn of heavy rains in the Zamboanga Peninsula, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao City, Davao del Sur, Cotabato, Maguindanao, Bukidnon, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, and Misamis Occidental provinces. Additionally, severe and moderate general flood advisories are in place for North Cotabato, Davao Oriental, Davao Del Sur, Davao Del Norte, Davao De Oro, Davao Occidental, Agusan Del Sur, Dinagat Islands, Surigao Del Norte, Angusan Del Norte, Surigao Del Sur, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Lanao Del Norte, Camiguin, Zamboanga Del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, and Zamboanga Del Norte provinces. Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Authorities in Surigao del Sur Province have ordered locals to evacuate as of May 14. The possibility of additional localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm may bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas of the southern Philippines over the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system approaches land. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in the low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration