Cote d'Ivoire: Protests likely nationwide in the coming days ahead of planned return of former president, June 17 /update 1

Event

Protests against and in support of former Ivorian president Laurent Gbagbo's return may take place nationwide over the coming days after his spokesperson announced June 9 that Gbagbo will arrive 14:00 June 17 at Abidjan's Felix-Houphouet-Boigny International Airport (ABJ). However, as of June 10, major related unrest has not been reported.

In the event that protests or rallies do occur, notable flashpoints include Bonoua (Sud-Comoe Region), Gagnoa (Goh Region), Yamoussoukro, and the Yopougon neighborhood in Abidjan – historic FPI and Gbagbo’s strongholds. Previously, the Collective for Victims of the Post-Electoral Crisis (Collectif des victimes de Cote d'Ivoire) civil society group gathered in front of the Palais de Justice in Abidjan May 10 to demand the immediate arrest of Gbagbo and Charles Ble Goude (former minister under Gbagbo’s presidency) upon their return. There were no reports of clashes.

Related gatherings, including at ABJ on June 17, could attract hundreds to thousands of people. Police are likely to introduce heightened security measures around ABJ and any protests on June 17. Checkpoints and road closures could lead to transport disruptions as well as disruption to accessing ABJ. Mass arrests are possible if officials consider any gatherings to violate COVID-19 rules. According to current domestic measures, large gatherings are only permitted with the approval of local authorities. Clashes between rival protesters as well as between protesters and security forces cannot be ruled out.

Context

Gbagbo had been in detention since November 2011 and faced counts of crimes against humanity, related to the violence following his defeat in the 2010 presidential election. On March 31, the International Criminal Court confirmed his acquittal for crimes against humanity, and current President Alassane Ouattara said he could return to Cote d’Ivoire freely.

In the medium-to-long term, while Gbagbo’s return is unlikely to result in widespread tensions, his ambitions remain unclear. His representative claimed that Gbagbo will issue a peaceful message upon his arrival.

Advice

Monitor the situation, avoid all protests and demonstrations as a precaution, and refrain from discussing domestic political issues in public.