Korean Peninsula: Official lines of communication between Pyongyang and Seoul restored as of July 27

Event

On July 27, the governments of North Korea and South Korea announced the resumption of official lines of communication between the two countries. Authorities have restored two direct military hotlines, along with contacts at the inter-Korean liaison office in Kaesong and at Panmunjom along the demilitarized zone (DMZ). Officials say they hope the moves will improve mutual trust and lead to further contacts.

Context

North Korean authorities cut off the communication channels in June 2020 in response to what Pyongyang alleged was the release of leaflets critical of Kim Jong-un and the ruling Workers' Party by South Korea-based activists along the DMZ. South Korean officials banned the release of such leaflets in December 2020.

The resumption of official inter-Korean communication channels will likely reduce bilateral tensions, and high-profile meetings between leaders from both sides are possible in the coming months. Economic problems in North Korea, and the upcoming end of South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s five-year term in May 2022, may inspire Pyongyang and Seoul to seek an improvement in relations. The governments may reach agreements on family visits or symbolic infrastructure ties. However, fundamental political and strategic differences between Seoul, Pyongyang, and other influential powers, most notably the United States and China, will almost certainly persist. Major concessions on longstanding disagreements over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and the US military presence in South Korea are highly unlikely.