Tajikistan: Authorities call up military reservists in response to increasing instability along the southern border with Afghanistan, as of July 8

Event

Authorities in Tajikistan have mobilized 20,000 military reservists to bolster security on the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border as of July 8 in response to increasing conflict incidents between Taliban militants and Afghan security forces in recent weeks. Tajik reservists will likely deploy to border crossings and outposts along the shared border. Heightened security, including military checkpoints and heavy troop deployments, is likely on roads near the border, as well as in border towns.

The Taliban have made significant advances or been engaged in fierce fighting in several Afghan provinces bordering Tajikistan's southern Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region and Khutlon Region. As a result, Taliban militants have seized several major border crossings, including the Shir Khan Bandar crossing and the Shahrtuz border outpost. According to emerging reports, Taliban militants now control trade from Afghanistan in Tajikistan via these major ports. To date, freight transport disruptions over-and-above those prompted by COVID-19 restrictions have not been reported; however, they remain highly likely given the ongoing instability in Afghanistan and the Afghan government’s stated intention to retake the border districts by force.

Troops will also likely facilitate the reception of Afghan security personnel fleeing Taliban advances. Between late June and early July, around 1,600 Afghan security personnel fled across the border in the face of Taliban advances. Most recently, 1,000 Afghan security personnel fled into Tajikistan from Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province, which borders southeast Tajikistan, July 4-5.

Tajikistan hosts a major Russian military presence and is a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. As such, Russian and regional officials have indicated their support for Tajikistan; however, it remains unlikely that Russia or the CSTO will directly intervene on the Afghan-Tajik border absent a major deterioration of the local security situation.

Advice

Consider avoiding nonessential travel to areas near the shared border until the situation has calmed. Consider alternative routes if planning to route freight through Afghan-Tajik border checkpoints. Exercise caution in Afghan-Tajik border areas in the coming weeks. Allow additional time for travel; carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces.