Arabian Sea: Tropical Storm Gulab regenerated, tracking westward in the Arabian Sea early Oct. 1 after crossing central India /update 6

Event

Tropical Storm Gulab has regenerated and is tracking westward over the Arabian Sea early Oct. 1 after crossing central India. As of 07:00 GST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 669 km (413 miles) east-northeast of Masirah Island, Oman. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a typhoon as it tracks west-northwest through the afternoon of Oct. 2. Gulab is likely to weaken into a tropical storm early Oct. 3 then turn to track southwest, making landfall over central Al Batinah North Governorate in Oman late Oct. 3. After landfall, Gulab is forecast to weaken rapidly into a tropical depression as it continues tracking southwest across Al Batinah North and northern Ad Dakhiliyah governorates and then far southeastern Abu Dhabi Emirate in UAE and Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia through early Oct. 5.

Government Advisories
As of early Oct. 1, officials in Pakistan have warned that thunderstorms, heavy rain, and strong winds associated with Gulab are likely over southern Balochistan and Sindh provinces through Oct. 3. Flooding is possible in urban areas of Shaeed Benazirabad and Lasbela districts as well as Badin, Dadu, Gwadar, Hyderabad, Karachi, Mirpurkhas, Pasni, Thatta, and Turbat cities and Jiwani, Ormara, and Sonmiani towns. Officials are likely to issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming days as the system progresses.

Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of additional localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm may bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to the impacted areas over the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with inadequate stormwater drainage systems.

Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system makes landfall. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

Transport
Inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports. Cancellations and disruptions are possible over the coming days.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to the presence of incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as authorities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Oman Department of Meteorology (Arabic)
Pakistan Meteorological Department
Saudi Arabia National Center for Meteorology (Arabic)
United Arab Emirates National Center for Meteorology and Seismology (Arabic)