Tajikistan, Uzbekistan: Authorities maintaining heightened security in Afghan border areas as of Sept. 30 /update 2

Event

Increased security will likely persist in southern border areas of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in the coming weeks following the Taliban takeover of neighboring Afghanistan. The Tajik-Afghan and Uzbek-Afghan borders remain closed indefinitely as of Sept. 30. Both countries have deployed additional military units to the border areas. Heightened security, including military checkpoints and heavy troop deployments, is likely on roads near the border and in border towns.

The additional troops are likely meant to prevent the passage of large numbers of refugees from Afghanistan crossing the borders; therefore, direct cross-border conflict is unlikely, though security forces could force to deter any illegal attempts to cross the border. Any bystanders would face a significant physical threat in the vicinity of any violence.

In addition, Russian military units have deployed to both countries in recent weeks and have taken part in exercises with local forces. Tajikistan already hosts a standing Russian military presence and is a Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member. However, it remains unlikely that Russia or the CSTO will directly intervene on the Afghan border absent a major deterioration of the local security situation.

Advice

Consider avoiding nonessential travel to areas near the shared border until the situation has calmed. Exercise caution in border areas in the coming weeks. Allow additional time for travel; carry relevant identification documents and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces.