Arabian Sea: Severe Cyclonic Storm Gulab tracking west-northwestward over northern Arabian Sea Oct. 1 /update 7

Event

Severe Cyclonic Storm Gulab (also known as Shaheen) is tracking west-northwestward over the northern Arabian Sea toward the coast of Oman Oct. 1. As of 16:00 GST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 517 km (321 miles) east of Muscat, Oman. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen as it tracks west-northwestward into the Gulf of Oman through the afternoon of Oct. 2.

Gulab is then likely to weaken by early Oct. 3, turning west-southwestward and then southwestward before making landfall over Oman's Al Batinah North Governorate as a cyclonic storm around late Oct. 3. After landfall, Gulab is forecast to weaken further as it tracks southwestward over the sultanate's Ad Dhahirah Governorate before dissipating over far southeastern Saudi Arabia (i.e., the Empty Quarter) by Oct. 5.

Government Advisories
As of Oct. 1, officials in Pakistan have warned that thunderstorms, heavy rain, and strong winds associated with Gulab are likely to affect parts of southern Balochistan Province through Oct. 3; scattered rain, thunderstorms, and gusty conditions are also forecast for parts of southern Sindh Province through Oct. 3. Flooding is possible in urban areas of Gwadar, Jiwani, Lasbela, Ormara, Pasni, and Turbat.

As of Oct. 1, Oman's Directorate General of Meteorology has issued multiple thunderstorm advisories for areas in the north of the country, including along the Gulf of Oman coast and in the country's interior.

Officials are likely to issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming days as the system progresses. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
The system will likely bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to areas in the storm's forecast path over the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with inadequate stormwater drainage systems.

Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system makes landfall. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

Transport
Inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports. Cancellations and disruptions are possible over the coming days.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to the presence of incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as authorities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Oman Directorate General of Meteorology
Pakistan Meteorological Department
Saudi Arabia National Center for Meteorology (Arabic)
UAE National Center of Meteorology