Arabian Sea: Severe Cyclonic Storm Gulab tracking westward in the Gulf of Oman early Oct. 3 /update 10

Event

Severe Cyclonic Storm Storm Gulab (also known as Shaheen) is tracking westward over the Gulf of Oman toward the coast of Oman early Oct. 3. As of 07:00 GST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 437 km (272 miles) north of Masirah Island, Oman.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm as it turns to track west-southwestward and making landfall over Oman's Al Batinah North Governorate as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm either late Oct. 3 or early Oct. 4. After landfall, Gulab is forecast to weaken rapidly as it tracks southwestward over the sultanate's Ad Dhahirah Governorate through the evening of Oct. 4.

The Omani National Committee for Emergency Management has ordered evacuations of thousands of residents in portions of Muscat and Ash Sharqiyah South governorates as well as the coastal area from Barka City to Saham Town in Al Batinah North Governorate to emergency shelters in Muscat, Al Batinah South, and Al Batinah North governorates set up in advance of the storm. Authorities have declared an official holiday Oct. 3-4 due to the storm. All schools except those in Al Wusta and Dhofar governorates are closed Oct. 4.

Residents in the UAE are prohibited from entering beaches, valleys, and lowlands due to the storm.

Government Advisories
As of early Oct. 3, officials in Pakistan have warned that thunderstorms, heavy rain, and strong winds associated with Gulab are likely to affect Gwadar, Kech, and Panjgur districts in southern Balochistan Province through Oct. 3. Sea conditions are forecast to remain rough to very rough along the western Makran coast. Fishermen from Sindh Province may resume fishing activities from the afternoon of Oct. 3 while those from Balochistan Province are advised to stay away from the open sea through at least the evening of Oct. 3.

Oman's Directorate General of Meteorology has issued multiple thunderstorm advisories for areas in the north of the country, including along the coast of the Gulf of Oman and in the country's interior.

The UAE's National Center of Meteorology has issued red (the highest level on a three-tier scale) warnings for large waves and strong winds in the Gulf of Oman through the afternoon of Oct. 3. Yellow (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) warnings are in place for heavy rain and strong winds over northeastern UAE through early Oct. 4.

Officials are likely to issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming days as the system progresses. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
The system will likely bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to areas in the storm's forecast path over the coming days. Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is also possible in streams, wadis (dry riverbeds), and urban areas with inadequate stormwater drainage systems. Significant rainfall may be preceded by winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system makes landfall. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede.

Transport
Inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Oman's National Transport Company Mwasalat has suspended all bus and ferry services across the country from Oct. 3 except for city services in Salalah and ferry services on the Shannah-Masirah route. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports. Cancellations and disruptions are possible over the coming days.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to the presence of incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as authorities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Oman Directorate General of Meteorology
Pakistan Meteorological Department
Saudi Arabia National Center for Meteorology (Arabic)
UAE National Center of Meteorology