Ethiopia: US authorities order departure of non-emergency embassy personnel Nov. 5 amid ongoing armed conflict /update 8

Event

The US Department of State issued a security alert Nov. 5 ordering the ''departure of non-emergency US government employees and family members of emergency and non-emergency employees" from Ethiopia amid ongoing insecurity. The warning follows a Nov. 4 advisory authorizing the voluntary departure of such individuals. Israeli authorities have also ordered the evacuation of families of diplomats Nov. 6. Additionally, Denmark and Italy have urged their citizens to leave the country while commercial options are still available; several countries, including France, Russia, and the UK, had issued similar warnings previously.

The warnings come after the Ethiopian government declared a nationwide state of emergency (SoE) Nov. 2 amid heavy fighting between the anti-federal-government Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and the Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force; ENDF), supported by regional militias. Under the SoE, which will last for six months from Nov. 2, the government can impose a curfew, disrupt transport and travel, and indefinitely detain anyone suspected of having links with a terrorist group. Officials can also disband local administrations in some areas and replace them with military leaders.

A heightened military presence in the Afar, Amhara, and Oromia regions is likely over the coming weeks, along with potential enhanced security measures, including curfews, roadblocks, additional states of emergency, movement restrictions, and disruptions of telecommunications and internet services, in major cities and towns. Acts of civil unrest or large celebratory gatherings are possible in response to battlefield developments.

Context

TDF forces have made significant advances in recent days. They reportedly control large areas in the south Amhara Region, including the cities of Dessie and Kombolcha, both around 260 km (162 miles) northeast of Addis Ababa. As of early November, TDF forces reportedly control the towns of Bati, Burka, Gerba, and Habru and are advancing toward the strategically important town of Mille.

Moreover, the Oromo Liberation Army-Shene (OLA-S), an insurgent group active in military operations against the federal government in the western Oromia Region and North Shewa Zone, has joined TDF's offensive and has reportedly taken control of Karakore, Kemise, and Senbete towns in the Amhara Region. These towns are around 205 km (127 miles), 232 km (144 miles), and 200 km (124 miles) northeast of Addis Ababa, respectively.

The TDF and OLA-S have formed a military alliance aimed at overthrowing the federal government. Their military successes have raised concerns that anti-federal-government fighters may soon threaten the capital; authorities in Addis Ababa told residents to register their weapons and prepare to defend the city Nov. 2. It remains unclear whether a combined TDF/OLA-S push on Addis Ababa would successfully challenge or overthrow the Ethiopian government's control of the capital. Nonetheless, over the short-to-medium term, the TDF and OLA-S will likely attempt to advance deeper into Amhara, Afar, and Oromia regions, targeting major cities. Military confrontation will likely intensify in the coming weeks, especially as ENDF forces launch counteroffensive operations against the TDF. The ENDF is also likely to conduct additional airstrikes against TDF positions in Mekelle and other urban centers.

Advice

Individuals currently on nonessential travel in Ethiopia should consider departing the country via commercial options when possible. Those within the country on essential travel should consider deferring travel to the Amhara, Afar, and Tigray regions and surrounding areas impacted by fighting until the situation stabilizes.

Avoid all military installations, administrative buildings, and strategic infrastructure, including power stations, media outlets, telecommunications infrastructure, and transport facilities, that may be potential targets. Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form; shelter in a secure building.

Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and planning freight shipments. If travel is essential, do so in convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.

Resources

French Embassy in Ethiopia
Russian Embassy in Ethiopia
UK FCDO Ethiopia
US Embassy in Ethiopia