Lebanon: Heightened societal and political tensions, instability likely to affect country through at least mid-December

Event

Heightened tensions and instability are likely to affect Lebanese society and politics through at least mid-December. Protests denouncing deteriorating economic and living conditions and perceived government mismanagement have continued in recent months, with demonstrators occasionally erecting roadblocks and engaging in violent clashes. Notably, sectarian clashes left at least seven people dead and dozens of others wounded in Beirut Oct. 14; the street violence was the worst to affect the country in years.

Various Western diplomatic services have advised against nonessential travel to Lebanon given the country's instability and volatile security situation. The UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) advised Nov. 16 against all but essential travel to Lebanon, except for areas near the Syrian border, Palestinian refugee camps, and the Hermel area to which the FCDO advises against all travel. The US Department of State has similarly advised travelers to reconsider travel to Lebanon due to threats of civil unrest, armed conflict, and crime, among other reasons, while more broadly advising against all travel to the country due to COVID-19-related concerns. The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has also advised against nonessential travel to Lebanon due to the "changed security environment."

Additional demonstrations and clashes are likely across Lebanon over the coming weeks. Protest activity and accompanying heightened security measures will probably prompt localized disruptions to transport and business in affected areas. Power outages and shortages of essential goods and services will likely continue across the country and potentially worsen through at least mid-December.

Context

Two main factors continue to drive protest activity in Lebanon: firstly, and most significantly, an economic depression that the World Bank claims is one of the world's worst since the mid-19th century; secondly, Lebanese politicians' perceived obstruction of the probe into the 2020 Beirut port explosion.

Nearly three-quarters of Lebanon's population is in poverty, the value of the country's currency has plummeted by over 90 percent since 2019, essential goods and services are increasingly difficult to access, and hours-long power outages are routine in Beirut and elsewhere. Meanwhile, the cabinet of Prime Minister Najib Mikati has failed to meet for over a month amid internal government disagreements over Judge Tarek Bitar, who is leading the Beirut port explosion investigation, and Minister of Information George Kordahi, whose comments regarding the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen recently sparked a diplomatic row between Lebanon and Gulf Arab states.

Advice

Defer nonessential travel to Lebanon through at least mid-December amid prevailing instability. If in Lebanon, avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for violence and heed security forces' instructions. Allot additional time to travel and seek alternative routes to circumvent protest-affected areas. Prepare for shortages of basic goods and poor provision of essential services. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Avoid discussing sensitive topics pertaining to local or regional politics in public spaces and outside of trusted contacts.