Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Batsirai continues tracking southwestwards, making landfall over east coast of Madagascar Feb. 5 /update 9

Event

Intense Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is tracking west-southwestwards in the Indian Ocean early Feb. 5. As of 18:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 289 km (180 miles) southeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Forecast models indicate the system will weaken slightly into a tropical cyclone as it tracks southwestwards and makes landfall over central Madagascar's Mananjary District at approximately 20:00 EAT Feb. 5.

The storm system will weaken rapidly into a moderate tropical storm as it tracks southwestwards over central Madagascar Feb. 5-6 before emerging over Atsimo Andrefana Region into the Mozambique Channel the afternoon of Feb. 6. Batsirai is forecast to strengthen slightly as it tracks southwestwards then southwards in the Mozambique Channel through early Feb. 10, with no further landfall forecast. However, some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Disruptions occurred in Mauritius and Reunion as the storm passed north of the islands Feb. 2-4. In Mauritius, 7,500 people lost power Feb. 2, most power has since been restored. Flights are operational at Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU).

In Reunion, reports indicate at least 12 people were injured in storm-related incidents. Power outages occurred nationwide, and as of late Feb. 4, around 72,000 people were still without power. Almost 50,000 people are also estimated to be without water supply in the western and southern municipalities due to preventative cuts at pumping stations. Schools will remain closed until Feb. 7. Flights at Roland Garros Airport (RUN) are operational. The RN1 Route du Littoral, RN1A, RN5 Route de Cilaos, RD41 Route de la Montagne, and RD48 Route de Salazie are closed through at least Feb. 5.

Madagascar is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Ana which transited over the country Jan. 22, causing widespread flooding. Some areas remain flooded. Authorities began pre-emptive evacuations in Manakra Feb. 4. Authorities have established shelters with a capacity for 5,000 people in Toamasina. Schools are closed since Feb. 4, and all nonessential workers have been advised not to work in areas under red alert warnings.

Government Advisories
The Mauritius Meteorological Services has lifted all cyclone warnings following the passing of the storm.

Meteo France La Reunion moved to a backup phase cyclonic alert across the territory as of Feb. 5, with residents advised to avoid nonessential travel until authorities lift this phase. As of Feb. 5, heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings are in place for northern and western areas. Strong wind warnings are in place for western and southern regions. These warnings are likely to be lifted by Feb. 6.

The Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has warned of a high risk of a storm surge of around 2 meters (6.5 feet) in the vicinity of where the storm makes landfall. Waves of 4-12 meters (13-39 feet) are forecast. As 18:00 EAT Feb. 5, authorities are maintaining the following warnings ahead of the storm's approach:

• Red level imminent danger alerts (the highest level on a three-tier scale): Vatovavy, Fitovinany, Atsimo Atsinanana, Atsinanana, Mangoro, Analamanga, Itasy, Vakinankaratra, Amoron'i Mania, Matsiatra Ambony, and Ihorombe regions, and Ambatondrazaka District

• Yellow level threat alerts: Bongolava, Menabe, Atsimo Andrefana, Anosy, and Androy regions, and Antsalova District

• Green level warning alerts: Ste Marie, Soanierana Ivongo, Fenoarivo Atsinanana and Vavatenina districts.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge.

Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)
Meteo France Reunion (French)