Lebanon: Anti-government protests and strikes likely to persist nationwide through early 2022 /update 1

Event

Demonstrations, sit-ins, strikes, and roadblocks will almost certainly continue across Lebanon, including in Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli, and Tyre through at least early 2022. Protests denouncing deteriorating socio-economic conditions and perceived government mismanagement have been a regular occurrence since 2019. In past demonstrations, protesters have clashed with security forces, engaged in rioting, and conducted acts of vandalism against public and private property.

Prominent rally sites include public squares, government buildings, and city centers. In Beirut, protests will likely materialize at the Port of Beirut, the Ministry of Justice, Riad el-Solh Road, Martyrs' Square, and near the government palace. Demonstrators may burn tires and sporadically barricade main roadways during protests, prompting ground travel disruptions. Transport disruptions and strikes could also result in further commercial disruptions. Security forces will almost certainly continue monitoring and responding to all protests and roadblocks. Clashes between security forces and protesters are possible, especially if protesters ignore police orders or are overly disruptive.

Context

Lebanon continues to be mired in its worst crisis since its 1975-1990 Civil War. The country is in the midst of an economic depression regarded as one of the world's worst. Nearly three-quarters of Lebanon's population is in poverty, the value of the country's currency has plummeted by over 90 percent since 2019, essential goods and services are increasingly difficult to access, and hours-long power outages are routine in Beirut and elsewhere.

Major economic and political reforms will be required to help reverse the crisis, unlock international financial assistance, and address protesters' demands. However, Lebanon's confessional government structure, which distributes political power according to religious sect, has stymied efforts to resolve the crisis. Many anti-government protesters claim the confessional system has contributed to Lebanon's current instability due to the belief it benefits political elites and encourages a lack of accountability.

Advice

Liaise with trusted contacts regarding protest sites and maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for localized clashes or other security incidents. Allow significant extra time to reach destinations in city centers in Lebanon until the protests abate. Do not attempt to pass through protester roadblocks; wait for authorities to remove them. Be alert for residual debris and sharp objects if driving on previously blocked roads. Heed the instructions of local security personnel. Remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by law enforcement officers. Reconfirm business appointments.