North Korea: Military reportedly launches unidentified projectile March 16

Event

North Korea reportedly fired an unidentified projectile at around 09:30 March 16. South Korean military officials claimed that North Korea fired the projectile from the Sunan District in Pyongyang but the launch reportedly failed. The exact flight path and distance remain unclear. The US and South Korean agencies are conducting further analysis to determine if the project was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). There were no immediate reports of damage, injuries, or transport disruptions following the launch.

Context

The projectile launch, the tenth North Korean firing in 2022, is at least partially intended to demonstrate the government's defense policy to counter alleged US aggression for a domestic audience, and possibly gain more leverage for future nuclear negotiations. North Korea also appears to be focused on testing equipment for a possible full intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch. Such an action, which would break a self-imposed 2017 moratorium on nuclear and ICBM testing, will likely escalate tensions in the region. Two recent launches March 5 and 7 reportedly tested parts of a new ICBM system, though North Korea has claimed that the launches were tests for a new satellite system. While former South Korean President Moon Jae-in adopted a conciliatory approach to North Korea, newly elected President Yoon Suk-yeol will likely take a tougher stance and could engage in retaliatory action should North Korea increase posturing. The frequency of tests comes ahead of significant milestones for North Korea, including leader Kim Jung-un's tenth year in power and the 80th anniversary of former leader Kim Jong-il's birth April 15.

If confirmed, an ICBM attempt could further raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Despite attempts at jumpstarting diplomacy, the geopolitical dynamics on the Korean Peninsula remain largely unaltered, as North Korea has previously stated it will only give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for concrete moves to reduce perceived US threats against it. North Korean leaders have previously warned of stronger actions in response to the latest US sanctions, and further launches remain possible in the coming weeks. However, both sides are highly likely to avoid any actions that could escalate into a full-scale conflict.