North Korea: Military reportedly launches unidentified projectile toward East Sea March 5

Event

North Korea reportedly fired an unidentified projectile toward the East Sea (Sea of Japan) the morning of March 5. The exact flight path and distance remain unclear, but Japanese government officials claimed the launch could have been a ballistic missile. There were no immediate reports of damage, injuries, or transport disruptions following the launch.

Context

The projectile launch, the ninth North Korean firing in 2022, is at least partially intended to demonstrate the government's defense policy to counter alleged US aggression for a domestic audience. Most recent launches have been ballistic missiles fired from various platforms, suggesting the military is testing its arsenal's survivability. However, the latest launch also comes days before South Korea's presidential election, and North Korean leaders may have used the newest projectile launch as a tactic to influence that poll.

The March 5 launch is unlikely to increase tensions significantly. Despite attempts at jumpstarting diplomacy, the geopolitical dynamics on the Korean Peninsula remain largely unaltered, as North Korea has previously stated it will only give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for concrete moves to reduce perceived US threats against it. North Korean leaders have previously warned of stronger actions in response to the latest US sanctions, and further launches remain possible in the coming weeks. However, both sides are highly likely to avoid any actions that could escalate into a full-scale conflict.