Madagascar: Moderate Tropical Storm Jasmine approaching Atsimo-Andrefana Region April 26; landfall imminent /update 3

Event

Moderate Tropical Storm Jasmine is tracking eastward in the Mozambique Channel April 26 and is approaching the coast of the Atsimo-Andrefana Region in southwestern Madagascar. As of 15:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 341 km (212 miles) east-southeast of Europa Island. Forecast models indicate the system will make landfall near Toliara late April 26 before weakening into a zone of disturbed weather as it tracks east-southeastward across southern Madagascar late April 26-early April 27. The system is expected to turn to track east-northeastward and emerge off Madagascar's southeast coast into the Indian Ocean late April 27 before taking a turn to the northeast and dissipating early April 28. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of April 26, the Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has issued red cyclone alerts (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Betioky, Sakaraha, and Toliara 1-2 districts. Yellow cyclone alerts have been issued for Ampanihy, Ankazoabo, Benenitra, and Morombe districts. Red flood warnings have been issued along the Fiherenana River in Atsimo-Andrefana Region. Red heavy swell and strong warnings have been issued for parts of the southwestern and southern coastlines, and yellow heavy swell warnings for parts of the southeast coastline. Yellow and green heavy swell warnings are in place for parts of the western and eastern coastlines. Authorities will likely publish new advisories or update/rescind existing alerts throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region, such as Morombe Airport (MXM), and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)