Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Bonnie tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea July 1 /update 7

Event

Tropical Storm Bonnie is tracking westward over the Caribbean Sea off Nicaragua's eastern coast as of evening July 1. The storm made landfall June 28-30 over eastern Trinidad and Tobago; Isla Margarita, Nueva Esparta State, and Falcon State, Venezuela; and the Guajira Peninsula, La Guajira Department, Colombia. As of 17:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 160 km (100 miles) east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will likely make landfall over the southern South Caribbean Coast Autonomous Region in Nicaragua as a tropical storm late July 1 before tracking generally westward across southern Nicaragua's Rio San Juan then Rivas departments, close to the border with Costa Rica, and exiting into the North Pacific Ocean early July 2. The storm will subsequently strengthen into a Category 1 Hurricane by the afternoon of July 4 as it tracks generally west-northwest in the North Pacific Ocean parallel to the southern coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico through July 6. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of July 1, the following watches and warnings are in place:

• Tropical Storm Warning: San Andreas, Colombia; from Limon, Costa Rica, northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua; Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica, northward to the Nicaragua-Honduras border.

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.

Heavy rainfall is forecast across Nicaragua and Costa Rica through July 2. Forecast models indicate rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with isolated higher totals around 30 cm (12 inches). Storm surges could raise water levels by 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) along the coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the storm makes landfall.

Authorities in Costa Rica have evacuated at least 930 residents from the northern region near the San Juan River on the border with Nicaragua due to the risk of river flooding. Authorities in Nicaragua have suspended operations at Bluefields, Corn Island, El Bluff, and Puerto Cabezas ports located on the Caribbean coast, as well as the maritime terminals of Corinto, Potosi, Puerto Sandino, and San Juan del Sur on the Pacific coast and Granada, Moyogalpa, and San Carlos ports in the Great Lake of Nicaragua. Authorities have evacuated residents from the coastal areas on the main island of the Corn Island archipelago inland and evacuated residents from Cayos Miskitos archipelago and Pearl Cays as well as the El Cangrejal, Rama Cay, and Monkey Point communities to Bluefields, where 50 temporary evacuation shelters have been set up.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Colombia Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM)
Costa Rica National Institute of Meteorology
El Salvador National Service of Territorial Studies
Hidromet (Panama)
National Weather Service
Nicaragua Institute of Territorial Studies
Mexico National Meteorological Service (SMN)