05 Jul 2022 | 03:49 PM UTC
Japan: Aere downgraded to an extratropical cylone and tracking eastward over Shikoku Island late July 5 /update 4
Extratropical Cyclone Aere tracking eastward over Shikoku late July 5; system to continue to bring adverse weather across much of Japan.
Event
Tropical storm system Aere has been downgraded to an extratropical cyclone and is tracking eastwards over Shikoku Island late July 5. As of 21:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 135 km (84 miles) southeast of Iwakuni, Yamaguchi Prefecture. Aere made landfall as a depression near Sasebo City, Nagasaki Prefecture, Kyushu region early July 5 before being downgraded a few hours after making landfall. The system has tracked across northern Kyushu and the western Seto Inland Sea and made further landfall over Ehime Prefecture July 5. The storm system will continue to bring adverse weather to many parts of Japan in the coming days.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it continues to track eastward across the Kii Channel late July 5-early July 6, before making landfall over southern Wakayama Prefecture in Kinki Region early July 6. The system will then exit into the North Pacific Ocean and could strengthen back into a tropical storm as it continues to track generally westward over open water July 6-7. The storm system is expected to weaken as it turns to track north-northwestward July 8 and could make a further landfall over northeastern Miyagi Prefecture in Tohoku Region July 10. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of late July 5, the Japan Meteorological Agency had issued red heavy rain/landslide warnings (the second-highest level on a three-tier scale) for parts of Ehime Prefecture in Shikoku Region, Wakayama Prefecture in Kinki Region, and Fukushima Prefecture in Tohoku Region. Yellow heavy rain/landslide, heavy rain/flood, storm, high wave, high winds, flood, and thunderstorm advisories are in place across various other parts of the country. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.
The Japan Meteorological Agency has warned of heavy rainfall over the Pacific side of parts of eastern and western Japan July 6-7. Officials have forecast rainfall totals of up to 20 cm (8 inches) in the Shikoku and Tokai regions, 15 cm (6 inches) in Kanto and Kinki regions, and 10 cm (4 inches) in southern Kyushu through 12:00 July 6. Totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are expected in Kanto and Tokai regions early July 7.
As of late July 5, authorities have issued evacuation orders for the elderly and vulnerable people in Shidoma City, Matsuzaki Town, and Nishiizu Town in Shizuoka Prefecture, Taiji Town in Wakayama Prefecture, and Kamagowa City in Chiba Prefecture. Reports indicate that at least 50 buildings in Kochi Prefecture are flooded, including nine houses in Shimanto Town, and a landslide closed a road in Nakatosa Town. Multiple train services in Kyushu have been suspended or delayed due to adverse weather conditions July 5 and several roads in the region have been blocked by flooding. A road collapsed due to heavy rainfall in Wakayama Prefecture in Kinki Region July 5. Operations on sections of the Kururi Line in Chiba Prefecture have been suspended July 6 in anticipation of the adverse weather.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Flash flooding, landslides, and additional evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
