06 Jul 2022 | 03:43 AM UTC
Japan: Extratropical Cyclone Aere tracking eastward in the Philippine Sea, just off the coast of Shizuoka Prefecture early July 6 /update 5
Extratropical Cyclone Aere tracking eastward in Philippine Sea, off the coast of Shizuoka early July 6; adverse weather likely across Japan.
Event
Extratropical Cyclone Aere is tracking eastward in the Philippine Sea, just off the coast of Shizuoka Prefecture, early July 6. As of 12:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 226 km (140 miles) south-southwest of Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture. Aere made landfall as a depression near Sasebo City, Nagasaki Prefecture, Kyushu Region early July 5 before being downgraded into an extratropical cyclone a few hours after making landfall. The system has tracked across northern Kyushu and the western Seto Inland Sea and made further landfall over Ehime Prefecture July 5 and southern Wakayama Prefecture early July 6. The storm system will continue to bring adverse weather to many parts of Japan in the coming days.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will pass between the northern Izu Islands and enter the North Pacific Ocean over the coming hours. Aere could strengthen back into a tropical storm briefly early July 7 as it continues to track generally eastward over open water before transitioning back into an extratropical cyclone later that day. The storm system is forecast to weaken through early July 8 before making a sharp turn to track north-northwestward and dissipating east of northern Sendai Prefecture early July 10. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of early July 6, the Japan Meteorological Agency issued red heavy rain/landslide warnings (the second-highest level on a three-tier scale) for parts of western Ehime Prefecture in Shikoku Region and Kagoshima Prefecture in Kyushu Region. Yellow heavy rain/landslide, heavy rain/flood, storm, high wave, high winds, flood, and thunderstorm advisories are in place across most of the country. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.
The Japan Meteorological Agency has warned of heavy rainfall over the Pacific side of eastern Japan July 6-7, especially over the Izu Islands. Officials have forecast rainfall totals of up to 12 cm (5 inches) in Kanto and Koshin regions and 6 cm (2 inches) in the Tokai Region through early July 7. Landslides, flooding, lightning, and tornadoes are possible.
As of early July 6, authorities have rescinded all evacuation orders. Reports indicate that at least 117 structures have been damaged or flooded, including 51 buildings in Kochi Prefecture and 33 in Kyoto Prefecture. A landslide closed a road in Nakatosa Town. Multiple train services across the affected area have been suspended or delayed due to adverse weather conditions July 6, and flooding has blocked several roads in the region. A road collapsed due to heavy rainfall in Wakayama Prefecture in Kinki Region July 5.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Flash flooding, landslides, and additional evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
