05 Jul 2022 | 03:51 AM UTC
Japan: TD Aere tracking east-northeast over northern Kyushu the afternoon of July 5 after landfall near Sasebo City, Nagasaki Prefecture /update 3
TD Aere tracking east-northeast over northern Kyushu; landfall forecast over northern Ehime Prefecture the evening of July 5.
Event
Tropical Depression Aere is tracking east-northeastwards over northern Kyushu the afternoon of July 5, following landfall near Sasebo City, Nagasaki Prefecture. As of 12:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 76 km (47 miles) east of Sasebo, Nagasaki Prefecture. Aere transitioned into an extratropical cyclone with tropical depression strength winds early July 5.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain its current strength as it tracks north-northeastward over northern Kyushu. The system will proceed across the Seto Inland Sea before making further landfalls over northern Ehime Prefecture the evening of July 5 and far southwestern Kagawa and northern Wakayama prefectures later the same day. Aere is forecast to track east across northern Wakayama, Nara, then Mie prefectures before exiting into the North Pacific Ocean early July 6. The storm is likely to slightly strengthen into a tropical storm as it tracks across the North Pacific Ocean through early July 7 before weakening and tracking northward along eastern Honshu through early July 10. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of early July 5, the Japan Meteorological Agency had issued purple emergency heavy rain/landslide warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for parts of western Ehime and southern Tokushima prefectures. Red heavy rain/landslide warnings are in effect for parts of Kochi, northeastern Miyazaki, southern Oita, and Wakayama prefectures. Yellow heavy rain/landslide, heavy rain/flood, storm, high wave, high winds, flood, and thunderstorm advisories are in place across the rest of the affected area. Authorities have warned of possible flooding along Yasu River in Konan City, Kochi Prefecture. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.
The Japan Meteorological Agency has warned of high waves across northern Kyushu July 5 and possible landslides and flooding across western Japan and the Tokai region through July 6. Officials have forecast rainfall totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches) in the Shikoku and Kinki regions, 20 cm (8 inches) in the Tokai region, 15 cm (6 inches) in northern Kyushu, and 12 cm (5 inches) in southern Kyushu through 06:00 July 6.
As of early July 5, authorities have issued evacuation orders for parts of Anan City in Tokushima Prefecture and Uwajima City in Ehime Prefecture. Officials had also issued evacuation orders, primarily for the elderly, in parts of Oita, Tokushima, and Wakayama Prefecture. Reports indicate that at least 19 buildings in Kochi Prefecture are flooded, including nine houses in Shimanto Town. Multiple train services in Kyushu are suspended or delayed due to adverse weather conditions.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, flash flooding, landslides, and additional evacuations are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
