Ukraine: Russian forces continue military operations in east of country as of July 21 /update 167

Event

Russian forces have continued their offensive in eastern Ukraine as of July 21. While Moscow has begun to increase the tempo and scale of its attacks following the end of its operational pause, the escalation has not yet resulted in significant territorial gains. In general, combat remains focused in northern and central areas of the Donetsk Region. Russian forces in Izyum are attempting to advance on Barvinkove to the south, which would enable them to attack Slovyansk both from the northwest on the Izyum axis and from the west on the Barvinkove axis; however, Ukrainian forces have repulsed the Russian assault around Dmytrivka. Intense combat has been reported in several settlements approximately 10 km (6 miles) east of Siversk as Russian forces in Lysychansk attempt to reach the city. In the Bakhmut sector, Russian forces have reportedly gained a foothold in Pokrovske; additionally, Russian-aligned fighters have claimed to have captured Berestove, though this remained unconfirmed as of July 21. Fighting has also been reported further south as Moscow attempts to capture the Vuhlehirsk Thermal Power Plant.

In the country's south, Ukraine struck the Antonovskiy Bridge with long-range artillery for the second consecutive day July 20; separatist officials in the region have reportedly closed the bridge to freight traffic while they conduct repairs. The bridge, which spans the Dnieper River, is crucial for the resupplying and transportation of Russian troops in Kherson. Gaining control of crossings over the Dnieper River will likely be a top priority for Ukrainian forces operating in the country's south.

Skirmishes continue north of Kharkiv; reports suggest that Ukrainian defenders repelled Russian attacks on Udy July 19 and Pytomnyk July 20.

Moscow's forces have continued to conduct shelling, missile attacks, and airstrikes both across the front line and in other parts of the country. Mykolaiv, in particular, is subject to regular artillery and rocket bombardment. Russian shelling of central districts in Kharkiv July 20-21 notably resulted in civilian deaths and injuries.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00 until at least July 24. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Moscow's attention appears to have turned to the impending battles for Siversk, Bakhmut, and Slovyansk. With the bulk of Russia's personnel and equipment having been deployed in the Luhansk Region, further major assaults against settlements bordering that region are likely. Ukrainian forces are likely seeking to bolster defensive positions along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and between Bakhmut and Svitlodarsk; however, it remains possible that Ukrainian forces will fall back beyond the highway to more established defensive positions in Bakhmut and Siversk.

Regardless of Russia's next major objective, an increase in Russian offensive operations is highly likely throughout the combat zone in the coming days. The territorial situation in much of the country outside the Luhansk Region has remained fairly static for some time. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy Region from Russia's Kursk Oblast has also continued, with the likely aim of pinning a number of Ukrainian forces in the region.

Ukraine has increasingly struck targets deep behind Russian lines with advanced Western weaponry in an attempt to attrite and degrade Russian forces, with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces continue to come under significant pressure in the Donbas as Russia conducts intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions.

As the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider exiting these areas if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service