North Korea: North Korea reportedly launches unspecified ballistic missiles toward East Sea early late Sept. 28

Event

North Korea reportedly fired at least two unspecified ballistic missiles from Sunan District near Pyongyang toward the East Sea (Sea of Japan) late Sept. 28. Preliminary reports indicate that the missiles reached a maximum altitude of 30 km (19 miles) and traveled several hundred kilometers before landing outside Japan's exclusive economic zone. There were no immediate reports of damage, injuries, or transport disruptions following the incident.

Context

The projectile launch is at least partially intended to demonstrate the government's defense policy to counter alleged US aggression for a domestic audience and possibly gain more leverage for future nuclear negotiations. The latest launch comes a day ahead of US Vice President Kamala Harris' official state visit to Seoul and two days following a US-South Korea bilateral military exercise off Seoul's east coast involving an aircraft carrier. While former South Korean President Moon Jae-in adopted a conciliatory approach to North Korea, newly elected Yoon will likely take a tougher stance and possibly engage in retaliatory action should North Korea increase its posturing.

Despite attempts at jumpstarting diplomacy, the geopolitical dynamics on the Korean Peninsula remain largely unaltered, as North Korea has previously stated it will only give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for concrete moves to reduce perceived US threats against it. North Korean leaders have previously warned of stronger actions in response to the latest US sanctions, and further launches remain possible in the coming weeks. However, both sides are likely to avoid any actions that could escalate into a full-scale conflict.