Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm 18 tracking westward over the Philippine Sea as of Sept. 23 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm 18, named Karding in the Philippines, is tracking westward over the Philippine Sea as of Sept. 23. As of 14:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 1,200 km (745 miles) northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the storm system will strengthen as it tracks westward Sept. 23-25, before making landfall over northern Luzon Island in the Philippines Sept. 25. The storm will strengthen as it enters the South China Sea and likely attain typhoon strength Sept. 26 as it tracks westward towards Hainan, China, and Vietnam. Forecasts suggest that the storm could also impact parts of Laos, Cambodia, northern Thailand, and eastern Myanmar; however, some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.

As of Sept. 23, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has not issued a tropical cyclone wind signal; however, it has warned of severe weather over parts of northern Luzon. Occasionally heavy rainfall is forecast over Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, and the northern portion of Aurora Sept. 24-25. Heavy to intense rainfall is forecast over northern portions of Aurora, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, La Union, and Pangasinan Sept. 25-26. Moderate to heavy rain is forecast over Ilocos Region, as well as Cagayan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, and the northern portion of Zambales provinces, and the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region over the same period. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories in the coming days as the storm approaches.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)