Russia: Further civil unrest, travel disruptions, security incidents likely nationwide through mid-October following Kremlin's mobilization order /update 1

Event

Opposition protests, transport disruptions, and various security incidents, including sporadic acts of vandalism or arson, will likely continue across Russia in reaction to President Vladimir Putin's Sept. 21 executive order mandating a partial military mobilization in the country. The directive comes amid a series of battlefield setbacks in Moscow's war in Ukraine. Although the text of the directive places no limit on the number of personnel who may be called up, Russian defense officials initially plan to activate 300,000 reservists. According to the Kremlin, additional military personnel are required due to the front line reaching other parts of the Russian state border to counter increased shelling of Russian border areas and to defend against a feared Ukrainian offensive into Russian-occupied areas of the Donbas. The presidential order on the matter contained no expiration date or any other indication as to how long the mobilization may last.

The move has drawn swift backlash in various forms ranging from civil unrest by activist groups to an increase in the number of citizens seeking to leave the country.

Opposition Protest
Activist organizations, including the Vesna (Spring) Movement and the Feminist Anti-War Resistance, began staging protests in cities across Russia almost immediately following the Kremlin's Sept. 21 announcement of the mobilization. Security forces responded forcibly, with over 1,300 demonstrators reportedly being arrested.

Such groups will likely continue to organize rallies in major cities through at least mid-October. Demonstrations are most likely to occur near prominent public squares, major transport hubs, and government buildings. Security forces will almost certainly deploy heavily to any such gatherings that may materialize. Additional mass arrests may occur. Counter-protests by Kremlin supporters may also occur. Clashes between rival groups of activists are possible.

Travel Disruptions
The Russian border has reportedly seen increased activity and congestion since the announcement as males of military age try to leave the country. Currently, most border crossings are open, but some fear Moscow may close borders to prevent reservists from fleeing. The borders of the three Baltic countries and Poland have also been closed to some Russian refugees. Ticket prices for air travel to countries with visa-free access have reportedly skyrocketed since the mobilization order entered into effect. Flights to Turkey, Armenia, and Dubai have been fully booked into at least Sept. 26.

Security Incidents
There have been reports of a number of security incidents involving military recruitment offices, typically in the form of low-level arson attacks. Such offices have been attacked in St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, and Tolyatti. Further incidents cannot be ruled out.

Context

The partial mobilization marks a significant escalation in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow refers to as a "special military operation." Russian authorities had previously indicated that a military mobilization was unnecessary; however, Russian and Russian proxy forces in Ukraine have experienced significant battlefield setbacks, including the withdrawal from Ukraine's Kharkiv Region amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has likely prompted this shift in strategy.

The partial mobilization is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the conflict. Following mandatory training, reserve forces may be used in various capacities, including to defend the Russian border, relieve combat troops currently deployed in Ukraine, bolster defensive positions in Russian-occupied territory, or held in reserve ahead of a renewed offensive in late winter or early spring.

Putin also claimed that the mobilization was an effort to respond to Western support for Ukraine, stating that those nations were encouraging Ukraine to attack Russian territory and further alleging that unspecified NATO leaders had discussed the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons against Russia. Despite Putin's claims, and assurance that Russia would respond in kind to such an attack, the threat of nuclear escalation remains low.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to areas of Russia bordering Ukraine. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Monitor local media for updates on the situation and be prepared to change travel plans at short notice in response to developments. Avoid all protests and concentrations of security personnel.

Heed all official instructions. Carry proper documentation. Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Consider limiting movement in areas where troops are concentrating or undergoing military training. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces.