Ukraine: Rainfall and warmer temperatures forecast across most of the country through at least Oct. 6 /update 2

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Temperatures are forecast to rise across much of Ukraine through at least Oct. 6; however, the increase in temperatures is expected to be accompanied by showers in many parts of the country. Light rainfall is forecast in some northern, eastern, western, and southwestern regions Sept. 29-30, with largely stable conditions expected across much of the rest of the country. Moderate rainfall is expected in some western, central, and northern regions Oct. 1, with thunderstorms possible in the north. Through the rest of early October isolated showers are expected to break out across many parts of the country. Showers could be heavy at times and may be accompanied by thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to begin to rise across much of Ukraine from Sept. 29 and by the beginning of October daytime temperatures of 17-22 C (63-72 F) are expected across northern and western regions, 22-24 C (72-75 F) in eastern regions, 21-25 C (70-77 F) in central regions and up to 27 C (81 F) in southern regions. A slight drop in temperatures is expected from Oct. 2-3; however, above seasonal average warmth is expected to last across much of the country through Oct. 6.

As of Sept. 29, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center issued yellow fog warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) across central, eastern, and southern regions early Sept. 29 and further periods of fog are possible over the coming days. Authorities may issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Five-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Largely dry conditions Sept. 29 and October 1. Rainfall and thunderstorms Sept. 30. Ligh rainfall Oct. 2-6. Maximum daytime temperatures 13-23 C (55-73 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 7-15 C (45-59F).

• Luhansk: Largely dry conditions Sept. 29-Oct. 1. Showers and thunderstorms Oct. 2. Light rainfall Oct. 3-4. Maximum daytime temperatures 17-26 C (63-79 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 8-15 C (46-59 F).

• Donetsk: Largely dry conditions Sept. 29-Oct. 1. Showers and thunderstorms Oct. 2. Light rainfall Oct. 3-6. Largely dry Oct. 5-6. Maximum daytime temperatures 15-25 C (59-77 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 8-14 C (46-57 F).

• Mariupol: Largely dry conditions Sept. 29 and October 1. Light rainfall Sept. 30 and Oct. 2-4. Largely dry Oct. 5-6. Maximum daytime temperatures 17-22 C (63-72 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 10-16 C (50-61 F).

• Kherson: Largely dry conditions Sept. 29 and October 1. Isolated thunderstorms early Sept. 30 and moderate rainfall Oct. 2. Largely dry Oct. 3 and Oct. 5-6 with light rainfall Oct. 4. Maximum daytime temperatures 16-27 C (61-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 9-17 C (48-63 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Largely dry conditions Sept. 29 and Oct. 1. Thunderstorms forecast Sept. 30 and moderate-to-light rainfall Oct. 2-5. Largely dry Oct. 6. Maximum daytime temperatures 16-25 C (61-77 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 9-16 C (48-61 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Largely dry conditions Sept. 29 and Oct. 1. Light rainfall Sept. 30 and moderate-to-light rainfall Oct. 2-4. Largely dry Oct. 5. Maximum daytime temperatures 13-20 C (55-68 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-14 C (43-57 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Largely dry conditions Sept. 29 and Oct. 1. Light rainfall Sept. 30 and moderate-to-light rainfall Oct. 2-5. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-23 C (57-73 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-14 C (43-57 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Largely dry and warm Sept. 29-Oct. 2. Light rainfall Oct. 3 and 5. Dry and cloudy Oct. 4. Maximum daytime temperatures 17-27 C (63-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 10-15 C (50-59 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Sept. 29, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued yellow fog warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) over Belgorod and Rostov regions Sept. 29-30. The fog warnings issued by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center Sept. 29 include the conflict area.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting maritime freight traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Context

With the conflict in Ukraine ongoing into the autumn, the changing weather conditions are likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region, especially as winter approaches. Increased precipitation in the autumn months could cause flooding, affecting key rivers in the conflict region, inundating roads, and complicating travel over unpaved routes, which would inhibit the ability of both sides to sustain operations. When the coldest months of December-February arrive, temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring