Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Julia tracking westward off the northwestern coast of South America late Oct. 7 /update 2

Event

Tropical Storm Julia is tracking westward in the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Oct. 7 just off the northwestern coast of South America. As of 20:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 225 km (140 miles) north-northwest of Barranquilla, Colombia.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen further into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks generally westward over the southwestern Caribbean Sea before making another landfall over the east central Nicaraguan coast early Oct. 9. Following landfall, the system is likely to weaken rapidly as it tracks west-northwestward over central Nicaragua, southern Honduras, and northern El Salvador through early Oct. 10, before dissipating over southeastern Guatemala the afternoon of Oct. 10. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Oct. 6, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina islands in Colombia and Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas

• Hurricane Watch: Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields and north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras-Nicaragua border

• Tropical Storm Warning: Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields and north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras-Nicaragua border

• Tropical Storm Watch: Honduras from the Nicaragua-Honduras border to Punta Patuca

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models predict rainfall accumulations through early Oct. 10 of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) over the Colombian islands of San Andres and Providencia, 13-25 cm (5-10 inches) over eastern Nicaragua, and 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over the rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, and eastern El Salvador. Rainfall accumulations of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are also forecast over the Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama and 10-18 cm (4-7 inches) over northern Honduras, southern Belize, and central Guatemala. The heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and landslides in affected areas Oct. 8-9.

Swells generated by the disturbance will spread to Jamaica late Oct. 7, to Providencia and San Andres islands in Colombia Oct. 8, and to portions of the coast of Central America late Oct. 8. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Storm surge, accompanied by large and damaging waves, could raise water levels by 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina islands in Colombia.

Colombian authorities are preparing shelters across San Andres and Providencia islands. A curfew is in place over San Andres from 06:00 Oct. 8 through 06:00 Oct. 11 to limit the number of people outside. Authorities have suspended operations at Gustavo Rojas Pinilla International Airport (ADZ) in San Andres and El Embrujo Airport (PVA) in Providencia from 06:00 Oct. 8 through at least 12:00 Oct. 9.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Belize National Meteorological Service
Colombia Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM)
El Salvador National Service for Territorial Studies
Guatemala National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH)
Honduras Center for Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Seismic Studies (CENAOS)
Nicaragua Directorate General of Meteorology