Bay of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone Mocha tracking northwards as of early May 12 /update 1

Event

Tropical Cyclone Mocha has intensified and is tracking northwards across Bay of Bengal early May 12. As of 08:00 IST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1078 km (670 miles) south-southwest of Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a very severe cyclonic storm as it tracks generally northeast and passes well west of India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands through early May 13. The storm is likely to strengthen further into an extremely severe cyclonic storm the evening of May 13 before strengthening further and making landfall over northwestern Rakhine State in Myanmar early May 14. The system is forecast to weaken rapidly as it tracks over western Myanmar through early May 15. The storm's track and intensity forecast remain somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming days.

As of early May 12, the India Meteorological Department has issued orange (middle level on a three-tier scale) strong wind warnings across Gangetic West Bengal State May 13 and yellow thunderstorm, heavy rain, lightning, and strong winds for the Andaman and Nicobar Islands May 12-14. Yellow heavy rain warnings are also in place over Manipur and Mizoram states May 13.

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department has advised all fishing vessels in the North Bay and deep sea to remain close to the coast and proceed with caution.

The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has warned of rain and thunderstorms across Ayeyarwady, Bago, Magway, Mandalay, Sagaing, Taninthayi, and Yangon regions, Chin, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Mon, Rakhine, and Shan states, and Naypyitaw Union Territory through May 15. Regionally heavy rainfall is likely in Ayeyarwady, Bago, Magway, Mandalay, southern Sagaing, and Yangon regions and Chin and Rakhine states, while isolated heavy rainfall is forecast in Naypyitaw and northern Sagaing regions and Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Mon, and Shan states through May 15. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas are likely off and along the Rakhine State coast through May 14. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Reports indicate that authorities are evacuating people in low-lying areas of Bangladesh and Myanmar, including the Ayeyarwady Delta and coastal areas of Myanmar and St Martin's Island in Teknaf, Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh. Authorities have readied around 4,500 cyclone shelters in southeastern Bangladesh, most of them in Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar districts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Severe weather will likely prompt internet and mobile telecommunications disruptions in affected areas; service disruptions may be exacerbated by power outages caused by the cyclone. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
India Meteorological Department
Bangladesh Meteorological Department
Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology