Bay of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm Three forms in the northeastern Bay of Bengal June 9

Event

Cyclonic Storm Three has formed in the northeastern Bay of Bengal June 9. As of 12:30 MMT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 280 km (174 miles) south of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Forecast models indicate that the system will track generally east-northeastward late June 9-early June 10, before making landfall close to Sittwe in Myanmar's Rakhine State late morning June 10. The system is then forecast to turn to track northeastward as it weakens over land, dissipating over northeastern Rakhine State late June 10 or early June 11. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming hours and days.

As of June 9, Myanmar's Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has not issued any warnings specific to the storm; heavy rainfall is already forecast across much of the country due to the Southwest Monsoon. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department has advised the maritime ports of Chittagong, Cox's Bazaar, Mongla, and Payra to hoist Local Cautionary Signal No. 3 (level 3 on a ten-tier scale) due to the system's approach. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

The storm's path follows a similar track to that of Cyclone Mocha which struck the region May 14, causing at least 145 fatalities, predominantly in Rakhine State and affecting hundreds of thousands of people in northwestern Myanmar and southwestern Bangladesh. Although the current system is forecast to have a far lesser impact due to its relative lack of intensity, the storm could hamper recovery efforts still ongoing following the damage caused by Mocha, and people still housed in temporary accommodation will be highly vulnerable to further adverse weather conditions.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Bangladesh Meteorological Department