Bay of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone Three tracking north-northeastwards in the northeastern area of Bay of Bengal early June 10 /update 1

Event

Tropical Cyclone Three is tracking north-northeastwards in the northeastern part of the Bay of Bengal early June 10. As of 03:00 BST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 222 km (138 miles) south of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Forecast models indicate that the system will continue north-northeastward and make landfall as a deep depression over far southeastern Chattogram Division, Bangladesh the afternoon of June 10. After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly, dissipating over southeastern Chattogram Division, Bangladesh early June 11. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming hours and days.

As of early June 10, Myanmar's Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has not issued any warnings specific to the storm; heavy rainfall is already forecast across much of the country due to the Southwest Monsoon. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department has advised the maritime ports of Chittagong, Cox's Bazaar, Mongla, and Payra to hoist Local Cautionary Signal No. 3 (level 3 on a ten-tier scale) due to the system's approach. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

The storm is likely to affect a similar area to that of Cyclone Mocha which struck southeastern Bangladesh and northwestern Myanmar May 14, causing at least 145 fatalities, predominantly in Rakhine State, Myanmar, and affecting hundreds of thousands of people across the region. Although the current system is forecast to have a far lesser impact due to its relative lack of intensity, the storm could hamper recovery efforts still ongoing following the damage caused by Mocha, and people still housed in temporary accommodation will be highly vulnerable to further adverse weather conditions.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Bangladesh Meteorological Department