Iceland: Eruption remains likely at Fagradalsfjall Volcano as of Nov. 29 /update 2

The Icelandic Met Office has warned that an eruption remains likely at the Fagradalsfjall Volcano in the southern Reykjanes Peninsula as of Nov. 29. Authorities have been closely monitoring the volcano since late Oct. after it started showing signs consistent with an imminent eruption. Seismic activity has been relatively stable at the volcano over the past few days, with around 500 tremors daily. Magma continues to accumulate in the Svartsengi area and flow along the 15 km (9 miles) magma dike under the volcano. An eruption is considered most likely in between Hagafell and Sylingarfell in the middle of the dike at some point in the coming days or weeks.

Officials evacuated Grindavik Town, located around 40 km (25 miles) southwest of Reykjavik, and declared a state of emergency in affected areas Nov. 11 due to the likelihood of an eruption. The evacuations have affected thousands of people and roads to and from Grindavik and other areas in the vicinity of the volcano remain closed. Reports indicate significant damage to roads and buildings across the town due to subsidence associated with the ongoing seismic activity. The aviation alert level for the volcano was reduced to yellow (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) Nov. 24, after it had been raised to orange since Nov. 10. The volcano is located 19 km (12 miles) southeast of Keflavik International Airport (KEF); the airport remains operational, and flights are running normally as of Nov. 29. The Blue Lagoon hotel and spa remains closed through closed through at least Dec. 7 as a precaution.

Officials may expand the evacuation order and road closures at short notice. Further volcanic activity is likely in the coming days. Further eruptive activity at the volcano could prompt transport disruptions in the surrounding area. Ashfall may reduce visibility and cause hazardous driving conditions and could pose an increased threat to air traffic; flight disruptions are possible at Keflavik International Airport (KEF) if a significant eruption occurs and winds direct ash clouds in the general direction of the airport. Lava flows could block highways and damage structures.