Russia: Adverse weather forecast to continue across southwestern regions through at least Nov. 17 /update 1

Severe weather, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds, is forecast to continue across parts of southwestern Russia through at least Nov. 17. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in affected areas, and associated disruptions are likely; flooding has been reported in parts of the affected area in recent days, including Krasnodar and Sochi. Strong winds may cause property damage and power outages.

As of Nov. 16, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following weather warnings across the affected area:

• Orange heavy rainfall warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Krasnodar Krai and Sochi.

• Orange rain-flood warning: Sochi.

• Orange other hazard warnings for rain, strong winds, and possible flooding: Sochi and Karachay-Cherkess Republic.

• Orange strong wind warnings: Chechen Republic, Republic of Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkar Republic.

• Orange rough sea warning: Sochi.

• Yellow heavy rain warnings: Republic of Adygea, Republic of Kalmykia, Chechen Republic, Kabardino-Balkar Republic, Republic of Dagestan, Republic of Ingushetia, and Stavropol Krai.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Krasnodar Krai, Republic of Adygea, and Republic of North Ossetia-Alania.

• Yellow fog warning: Krasnodar Krai, Republic of Kalmykia, Chechen Republic, Republic of Ingushetia, and Stavropol Krai.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

Authorities may issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, and/or landslides impact utility networks.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the affected area. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles.

Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.