Philippines: Adverse weather forecast across parts of Mindanao through at least Jan. 17

Severe weather is forecast across parts of Mindanao through at least Dec. 17. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather advisory warning that the shear line will bring significant amounts of rainfall across parts of the Caraga, Davao, Northern Mindanao, and Soccsksargen regions over the coming days. Rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are expected across the Davao Region Jan. 16-17 and in Agusan del Sur and Surigao del Sur provinces in the Caraga Region Jan. 16. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast in the rest of the Carga Region and across the Northern Mindanao and Soccsksargen regions Jan. 16 and across the Caraga and Soccsksargen regions Jan. 17. Sustained heavy rainfall may trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes across the affected area. As of Jan. 16, PAGASA has issued severe general flood advisories (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) across the Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and Davao Oriental provinces in the Davao Region and moderate general flood advisories across the Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and Surigao del Sur provinces in the Caraga Region and the Bukidnon and Misamis Oriental provinces in the Northern Mindanao Region. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.