Philippine Sea: Typhoon Gaemi tracking north-northwestward in the Philippine Sea early July 24 /update 5

Typhoon Gaemi, known in the Philippines as Carina, is tracking north-northwestward over the Philippine Sea early July 24. As of 11:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 254 km (158 miles) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen slightly, track northwestward, and make landfall over Yilan County in northeastern Taiwan as a strong typhoon late July 24. The system will likely weaken slightly over land but remain at typhoon strength as it moves into the Taiwan Strait early July 25. Gaemi will weaken further before making another landfall as a weak typhoon over Fujian Province, China, late July 25. After landfall, Gaemi is likely to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks north-northwestward over Fujian and Jiangxi provinces through early July 27 before weakening further into a tropical depression and then dissipating as it moves over Hubei Province early July 28. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early July 24, the Taiwan Central Weather Administration has issued red typhoon warnings across Taiwan. A purple extremely torrential rain advisory (the highest level on a four-tier scale) has been issued over central Taiwan and southern Yilan County, and red and orange heavy rain advisories and strong wind advisories have been issued across much of Taiwan. Swell warnings have been issued in some northeastern coastal areas.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued a weather bulletin warning of winds gusting up to 234 kph (145 mph), daily rainfall totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches), and waves up to 12 meters (39 feet) across parts of Okinawa Prefecture through July 25. The JMA has issued purple storm surge warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Ishigakijima Region in Okinawa Prefecture, red storm/gale warnings for Ishigakijima and Yonagunijima regions, and red high wave warnings across much of Okinawa Prefecture. Yellow storm/gale, high wave, storm surge, and thunderstorm warnings have been issued across most of Okinawa Prefecture.

Hualien County, Taiwan, started evacuating residents from areas vulnerable to landslides, floods, and other disasters July 23, including more than 1,000 residents in Xiulin Township. Mandarin Airlines (AE) and Daily Air (DA) have suspended all domestic flights July 24, and Eva Air (BR) has announced the cancelation of at least 27 international flights. Authorities in Taiwan suspended all ferry services connecting Taitung and Green, Orchid, and Xiaoliuqiu islands July 23-25. Train services between Alishan and Chiayi stations will be suspended from July 23, while officials will halt services within the Alishan Recreation Area July 24-25. Taiwan suspended parts of its annual Han Kuang war games in advance of the storm. Financial markets, schools, and offices will be closed July 24 across most of Taiwan.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.