23 Jul 2024 | 01:49 AM UTC
Venezuela: Election-related disruptions likely nationwide due to presidential election July 28 /update 1
Election-related disruptions are likely across Venezuela in the lead-up to July 28 presidential election. Clashes possible.
Heightened security, gatherings, and demonstrations are likely across Venezuela in the lead-up to the July 28 presidential election. Candidates, especially President Nicolas Maduro and main opposition contender Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, are likely to hold their final election rallies through July 25, when the campaign officially ends.
A large security operation is underway, with thousands of members of the Venezuelan military deploying to polling stations, mostly schools, community centers, and universities nationwide for the July 28 vote. Venezuelan authorities are likely to close the country's land borders with Colombia and Brazil ahead of the vote, although officials have not announced a specific date for the closure.
Transport and business disruptions are likely in areas subject to rallies. Road closures are likely near voting centers on July 28. Gatherings are probable, especially after the end of the voting process, from late July 28 to July 29. Clashes between protesters and police or military can occur, especially if demonstrators denounce the vote as fraudulent.
Avoid all gatherings as a standard precaution. Heed the advice of officials. Reconfirm the status of transport services and road routes before travel, particularly in the immediate run-up to the election. If violence erupts, depart the area and seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Do not attempt to cross protester-erected roadblocks. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions.
President Nicolas Maduro will look to win a third presidential term on July 28, but unlike the 2018 elections, his administration faces serious competition from opposition political parties. According to most polls, Maduro is between 15-20 percentage points behind his main rival, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, supported by the Unitary Platform coalition. Gonzalez became the candidate only after Maria Corina Machado, the winner of the 2023 opposition primaries, was banned from running in the election.
Despite the polls, there are multiple doubts about whether Maduro would accept defeat and give up power in January 2025, when his second term officially ends. The election has had multiple controversies, including the ban on Machado and other high-profile opposition leaders, the arrest of dozens of opposition activists in recent weeks, and multiple threats from government officials regarding a potential opposition victory.
Few international observers were allowed to enter Venezuela to monitor the election, including a small group from the US-based Carter Center and several election specialists from the UN. Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, traditionally a Maduro ally, has been critical of the process and has asked Maduro to accept the result if it ends in defeat for him. Da Silva said he would send former Foreign Minister Celso Amorim to Venezuela on July 28.
