Afghanistan: Heightened security likely for Victory Day holiday on Aug. 14 to mark the third anniversary of the Taliban administration

Authorities are likely to heighten security across Afghanistan for the Victory Day holiday on Aug. 14. The public holiday marks the third anniversary of the Taliban's rise to power. Officials have not publicized any specific commemorative events, though Taliban members typically hold small vehicular processions in central areas of cities, including at the Massoud Circle intersection near the former US embassy compound in Kabul. Events are also possible at religious sites and administrative offices in Kabul and other provincial capitals. Local business closures are likely.

Groups opposing the Taliban rule may protest at public squares and outside administrative buildings and offices of international organizations and/or foreign embassies. Demonstrations are also possible along major roadways. Rallies in urban centers are typically small and dispersed quickly by security officers who may use batons and warning gunfire. Larger gatherings may occur in the Panjshir Province. Localized transport disruptions are possible near protests.

Armed clashes cannot be ruled out between anti-Taliban insurgent groups and the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K). Militant attacks by the IS-K remain a significant threat across Afghanistan. In 2023, the anti-Taliban National Resistance Front (NRF) claimed an Aug. 16 attack targeting a Taliban vehicle in Takhar Province's Taloquan city, while multiple explosions causing casualties amidst Taliban personnel and Shi'a Muslims occurred in Kabul in the lead up to, during, and immediately after the holiday in 2022. Taliban security forces and officials and ethnic and/or religious minorities remain the most common targets.

Heightened security deployment is likely at sensitive sites and popular protest venues. Enhanced measures such as vehicle and personnel checks will most probably affect Kabul and other cities. Temporary curfews and suspension of telecommunication services may affect areas with armed clashes or mass casualty attacks.