Nigeria: Further anti-government protests likely through at least Aug. 10 /update 1

Further anti-government protests and counter-protests are likely through at least Aug. 10. Anti-government activists rallying under slogans such as "End Bad Governance" and "Tinubu Must Go" have planned a series of actions through Aug. 10 over several demands, including electoral and anti-corruption reforms and reduced electricity and fuel tariffs.

On Aug. 1, well-attended anti-government protests occurred in Abuja, Benin City, Edo, Gombe, Gusau, Ibadan, Jos, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Maiduguri, Port Harcourt, and Yenagoa, among other affected locations, including along major roads such as the Abuja-Kaduna and Abuja-Keffi highways, causing traffic gridlock. Looting and vandalism incidents occurred in several areas across the country. Police fired tear gas to disperse multiple gatherings, including in Abuja and Lagos. There have been reports of casualties, including up to six protesters in the Suleja area along the Abuja-Kaduna highway as security forces dispersed the blockade. Three people were reportedly hit and killed by a police vehicle in Kaduna. Four people were killed in Maiduguri, and up to two were killed in Kano, reportedly due to live ammunition. The casualty toll across the country may be higher.

In response, activists supporting the government under the slogan "Protect Nigeria" have announced similar actions Aug. 1-15. On Aug. 1, these gatherings saw little participation and occurred mainly in Lagos and Abuja; some minor clashes were reported between rival protesters.

Amid the unrest, officials have issued curfews in various locations, Aug. 1.

• The Yobe Governor has declared a 24-hour curfew in the Potiskum, Gashua, and Nguru Local Government Areas (LGAs).

• The Kano State Governor has enacted a 24-hour statewide curfew.

• A 24-hour curfew is in place in Borno State due to security concerns over a recent bombing.

Government officials or governors may implement similar curfews and other restrictions ahead of the protests or in the event of significant local, state, or nationwide unrest. There have also been reports of internet and phone disruptions.

In the event of future protests, likely gathering locations include city centers of state capitals, notably near governor's offices, government buildings, such as the National Assembly in Abuja, major roads, including highways, and those from city centers to airports. Counter-protesters may attempt to gather in similar areas, raising the risk of confrontations between protesters.

An increased security presence and localized travel delays are likely near all gatherings, particularly in city centers of state capitals near government buildings and transport hubs. The potential for clashes between rival activists or with security forces is elevated, particularly if officials ban the anti-corruption gatherings and activists block major roads, including those connecting airports.