29 Nov 2024 | 11:59 AM UTC
Israel, Lebanon, Syria: Further cross-border strikes likely through end December /update 10
Further cross-border strikes likely in Israel, Lebanon, and Syria, through at least end December. Significant disruptions likely.
Further cross-border strikes are likely in Israel, Lebanon, and Syria through at least the end of December despite the recent agreement of a 60-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is retaliating to perceived violations of the ceasefire by launching occasional airstrikes and firing artillery against alleged Lebanese Hizballah (LH) operatives in southern Lebanon. Additional IDF strikes remain possible throughout the ceasefire period. Lebanon's Health Ministry reported that Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 3,961 people and injured approximately 16,520 others in the country since Israel intensified its campaign against the LH Sept. 23. The IDF has killed several LH commanders since Sept. 23, most notably LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut Sept. 27.
The LH, meanwhile, has so far refrained from launching rockets toward Israel since the ceasefire agreement. Previous projectiles triggered sirens in northern Israel, including near Haifa, in Tel Aviv, and occasionally further south in Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Should the ceasefire collapse, LH operations against Israel will almost certainly resume. Shi'a militias in Iraq and Syria, as well as Yemen's Al-Houthis, have also targeted Israel with drone attacks on Eilat and Tel Aviv. Further attacks originating from Iraq, Syria, and Yemen are likely despite the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. On Nov. 28, Israeli officials eased restrictions on gatherings in parts of central and northern Israel.
The IDF will also likely continue its airstrikes against Shi'a militias' positions in Syria, including in the border region with Lebanon, the Golan Heights region, and other sites deeper within Syria. The IDF regularly targets Damascus (DAM) and Aleppo (ALP) international airports and has previously caused severe material damage to the runways.
Heightened security and disruptions to transport and business operations will probably affect areas subject to cross-border hostilities. While cross-border tensions and strikes had previously prompted all foreign airlines to cancel flights to Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY), Lebanese authorities claim foreign airlines are expected to resume flights to BEY between Dec. 5 and Dec. 15. Should cross-border attacks resume further flight disruptions, including in Lebanon and Israel, cannot be ruled out. Any resumption of cross-border strikes may also disrupt the functioning of utilities and telecommunications networks in some areas. Authorities in Israel or Lebanon may impose further emergency measures, including movement restrictions or shelter-in-place orders, on short notice in response to conflict developments.
Consider avoiding nonessential travel to Lebanon, Syria, and Israel, particularly the shared border region, until the situation stabilizes. Consider departing Lebanon via commercial means while these are available; note that commercial options to depart Lebanon may become increasingly limited if the security situation deteriorates further. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Reconfirm the status of transport services before departure. Review and update contingency plans.
The IDF's air campaign that began on Sept. 23 was the deadliest in Lebanon since it waged war with the LH in 2006. It came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to change the "balance of power" vis-a-vis the Lebanon-based militant group through preemptive strikes on perceived LH targets. Israel sought to push LH militants back from the Israeli-Lebanese border and degrade the group's ability to launch additional strikes toward Israel so as to permit the return of some 60,000 Israeli citizens displaced from the north of the country by cross-border fighting that erupted after the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel. On Nov. 27, Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 60-day ceasefire, leading to a temporary cessation of significant military operations between the IDF and LH militants.
