Kenya: New election set for October 17 /update 12

Event

A new ballot for the presidential election is set to be organized on Tuesday, October 17, following the Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate Uhuru Kenyatta’s recent re-election. Opposition candidate Raila Odinga has called for the replacement of the election board ahead of the election - a proposition that has been rejected by sitting President Kenyatta as well as the election board - which could result in potential showdown between the government and the opposition. Further political rallies will be organized until the October 17 vote, which could draw significant crowds, especially in Nairobi, Kisumu, and Mombasa. Although the security situation remains stable as of Monday, September 4, tensions will likely remain high throughout the country; unrest, notably among the Kenyatta Jubilee ruling party and its supporters, and violence cannot be ruled out in the coming days. Increased security forces have been deployed nationwide, especially in potential unrest flashpoints such as Kibera, the Mathare suburbs of the capital  Nairobi, and Kisumu.

Context

On September 1, the Supreme Court released its final decision, invalidating Kenyatta’s re-election on August 8, due to reported irregularities in the vote counting.

The controversy started when opposition leader Raila Odinga announced that he would challenge the results of the August 8 presidential election - which saw sitting President Kenyatta receive 54 percent of the vote - in the Supreme Court amid claims that the electronic tally system had been rigged. Violent protests broke out after the election in opposition strongholds on August 9; at least 24 people were killed in post-election violence between August 9 and August 14. 

Previous elections in Kenya have been widely contested and marred with violence. More than 60 people were charged with electoral offenses following chaos and violent outbreaks during party primaries in April. The 2007 presidential elections were plagued by major violence, resulting in an estimated 1200 deaths. Protests after elections in 2013, which were undermined by claims of fraud after many of the electronic voting systems failed, also resulted in several deaths.

Advice

Individuals in Kenya are advised to avoid all public gatherings (particularly political events) due to the risk of violence, and to monitor the situation. Be prepared to shelter in place in the event the security situation in the country deteriorates (stock up on food, water, and other necessities). Additionally, those undertaking long-distance travel within the country are advised to consider traveling via plane (rather than by road) to minimize exposure to security threats.

On separate note, due to the significant, generalized terrorist threat, individuals present in Kenya are advised to remain vigilant, to report any suspicious objects or behavior to the relevant authorities, and to be particularly cautious when visiting sites deemed particularly likely to be targeted in an attack (government buildings, places of worship, tourist sites, etc.).